How did reality measure up to our unscientific online poll?

It seems to portray an electoral alternate universe, in which some votes went wildly astray of last night's vote actual votes, and others fell more or less along the same lines.

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How did reality measure up to our unscientific online poll?

POSTED: Wednesday, May 18, 2011, 1:49 PM
Filed Under: ElectionEar

The primary is over and the polls have closed. 

So has the City Paper ElectionEar Ultimate Primary Poll, an an online recreation of most of the ballot (except judges), that had been up since last weekend, and which drew thousands of "votes" from hundreds of "voters."

Many a campaign and campaign manager, we are told, was none to happy about that poll. It was unscientific, they argued; it distorted reality. And, it's true, the results of our little experiment differed in many — though not all — cases from the actual results of last night's election.

But so what? A poll, after all, is a poll — it tells you something. In this case, it seems to portray an electoral alternate universe, in which some votes went wildly astray of last night's vote actual votes, and others fell more or less along the same lines.  

Click below for a look at a few highlights:

Mayor (D)

Actual vote: Michael Nutter 75.84%, Milton Street, 24.08%

Our Poll: Michael Nutter 71.07%, Milton Street 25.41%

 

Mayor (R)

Actual vote: Karen Brown, 50.12%, John Featherman 49.76%

Our Poll: John Featherman, 63%; Karen Brown 33.92%

 

City Commissioner (R)

Actual: Joseph Duda, 35.62%, Al Schmidt 35.22%

Our Poll: Al Schmidt, 71.76%; Marie Delany, 15.88%

 

City Commissioner (D)

Actual: Stephanie Singer 19.64%, Anthony Clark 16.63%

Our Poll: Stephanie Singer, 49.21%, Blair Talmadge 14.45%

 

Sheriff (D)

Actual: Jewell Williams, 61.56%; John Kromer 26.65%

Our Poll: John Kromer, 56.59%; Jewell Williams 30.73%

 

Council, At-Large (D)

Actual: Blondell Reynolds Brown, 13.92%; Bill Green, 13.62%; William Greenlee, 11.59%; Wilson Goode, Jr. 9.87%; James Kenney 9.7%

Our Poll: Andrew Toy, 23.3%; Sherrie Cohen, 14.05%; Blondell Reynolds Brown, 11.17%; Bill Green, 11.08%; James Kenney, 9.77%

 

Council, At-Large (R)

Actual: David Oh, 18.05%; Dennis O'Brien, 17.32%; Joseph McColgan 13.46%; Al Taubenberger, 12.36%; Michael Untermeyer, 11.99%

Our Poll: Stephen Odabashien, 28.31%; David Oh, 20.17%, Dennis O'Brien 10.17%, Malcolm Lazin, 9.49%; Al Taubenberger, 8.64%

 

1st Council District (D)

Actual: Mark Squilla, 41.06%; Joe Grace 23.45%; Jeff Hornstein, 19.66%; Vern Anastasio, 16.01%

Our Poll: Vern Anastasio, 28.38%; Joe Grace, 25.45%; Mark Squilla, 24.32%; Jeff Hornstein, 21.85%

 

2nd Council District (D)

Actual: Kenyatta Johnson, 44.59%; Barbara Capozzi, 44.16%, Tracey Gordon, 9.33%, Damon Roberts 1.91%

Our Poll: Barbara Capozzi, 49.46%; Kenyatta Johnson, 35.33%, Tracey Gordon, 15.22%

 

6th Council District (D)

Actual: Bobby Henon, 65.30%, Martin Bednarek, 34.68%

Our Poll: Bobby Henon, 59.88%, Martin Bednarek 38.89%


7th Council District (D)

Actual: Maria Quinones-Sanchez, 60.43%, Daniel Savage, 39.56%

Our Poll: Daniel Savage, 71%, Maria Quinones-Sanchez, 28.62%

 

8th Council District (D)

Actual: Cindy Bass, 39.40%, Greg Paulmier, 21.30%, Verna Tyner, 18.52%

Our Poll: Howard Treatman, 36.16%, Cindy Bass, 24.29%, Verna Tyner, 19.21%

Posted by Isaiah Thompson @ 1:49 PM  Permalink | Post a comment
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