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This morning the Pew Charitable Trust released its second annual megasurvey of Philadelphians. You can read the DN's account of it here, or just download the survey for yourself here. The top lines, of course, are the headline-grabbers:
Nutter's approve/disapprove is at 53/32, up from 47/39 last April. 60 percent say they have a very or somewhat favorable impression of him, which, all in all, is a pretty good place for an incumbent mayor who just weathered the Great Recession and skyrocketing unemployment to be in. At the very least, it should be enough to give second thoughts to any potential challengers. (Pew didn't do a partisan breakdown, however; if he does get a viable challenge in 2011, it will almost certainly be from a Democrat in the May primary; his weakness — as the Pew people tell me it's always been — is among African-Americans and the less educated, two demographic groups that are well represented among Dems. Also, it's worth noting that, because Pew does not consider this a political poll, this poll questions Philadelphians at large, rather than registered or likely voters.)
City Council scores pretty well, too: A 42/34 approve/disapprove, again up a bit from last year. Police Commissioner Ramsey may well be the most popular guy in the city. He banks a 69/11 spread — apparently, he's getting the credit for the declining murder rate. Nobody knows much about school superintendent Arlene Ackerman: her approve/disapprove/don't know is 29/20/51. I'm surprised that her handling of the racially charged South Philly High School incidents, in which black kids were beating up Asian kids, hasn't hurt her more, considering how unknown of a quantity she is.
Much to my colleague Isaiah Thompson's dismay, I'm sure, casinos and table games both score well. 51 percent approve of casinos, to 34 percent opposed; 54 percent approve of table games, to 32 percent opposed (you read that right: more people support table games than casinos). So, backroom deals and all, it looks like most people are resigned to, if not excited by, the casinos' presence. I'm on a conference call with the Pew people now, and a DN guy just asked about this: "What's been going down is the number of people who disapprove," one of the Pew reps responded. In other words, the approval numbers have stayed steady, but the opposition has softened.
Oh, and the Streets Department sucks: While respondents seemed OK with library service (58 percent gave the library high marks) and the cops (52/45 in favor), the question of "street repair and maintenance" elicited a bit of ire: Only 28 percent rated Streets' services as "excellent or good," to 72 percent who think they are fair or poor. This degree of unhappiness is matched only on the question of whether the city has enough programs for teens: By a 28/54 margin, the respondents said no.
The cross-tabs yield some interesting results, too. At first blush, the fact that Nutter, who is black, does better among the city's whites than among blacks would seem counter-intuitive: Among whites, he gets a 65/21 approval; among blacks, however, he breaks even, 43/43. That said, Nutter has improved his position among blacks considerably since Pew's last survey, in April 2009 at the height of the city's budget war. Then, only 36 percent of blacks approved of his job performance, versus 54 percent who didn't.
Since Day One, Nutter's strength la largely with well-educated whites, and that's where he performs best now. He gets 62 percent support of those with a college degree, as well as 62 percent support from those making more than $100,000. Curiously, Nutter gets his best marks (59 percent) from the northeast, as well as those over 65 years old (65 percent). That said, except for the black cohort, he gets positive approval ratings across all income, demographic and regional groups.
People like Nutter. His economic policies, not quite so much. Overall, only 47 percent express confidence in his ability to handle the budget, to 46 percent who aren't confident. There's a 47/49 disapproval of his sales tax increase, which, statistically, is a tie. Here again, whites, better educated and wealthier people tend to favor the tax hike; blacks and Hispanics, those with less education and poorer people disapprove, which isn't terribly surprising, given that sales taxes are the most regressive taxes imaginable. At the same time, however, blacks tend to favor a more tax-and-spend approach to city governance, by a 45/39 margin. Whites (39/43) and Hispanics (32/49) lean toward lower taxes and service cuts.
So what does it all mean? With a broad brush, I'd say Nutter weathered the storm. His base among educated whites has held, and his standing among blacks is getting better. To be honest, any tax hike that breaks-even in these polls is a rare thing; people always hate tax hikes, even when they want more services. And given the economic shitstorm of the last year, the fact that he's close to even on any budget-related matters has to be a win. If Nutter survives the next round of budget wars, and the pending union negotiations, politically intact, I'd say he's a pretty solid bet for reelection. The caveat is how differently the people who will show up to vote next May will see things from those who answered their phone for Pew.
Pew says another batch of survey data is coming out later this month, on crime and the general mood of the city. We'll update then.
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Interesting survey. Thanks for spotlighting it. Pew's own write-up makes the rather bizarre assertion that "In 2009, the key budget decision made by Mayor Nutter and City Council (in concert with the state legislature and the governor) was to raise the sales tax in Philadelphia." Funny, I thought the key budget decision was to pass a city budget (sales tax hike included) that depended on agreements from Harrisburg that were not in place, and then to swan off on summer recess without a Plan B. For months last summer and fall, both the state and the city failed to negotiate seriously to resolve either budget crisis. In the meantime, small businesses failed, services to poor and middle-class families were cut or disappeared, and nonprofits teetered on the edge of financial destruction. When an independently funded organization takes it upon itself to assess city officials' performance, it would be nice if that assessment didn't set the bar so low.
[...] a few weeks back when I broke down the Pew Charitable Trust's poll? Well, part 2 is out today, and it "shows that Philadelphians are optimistic about the city's [...]
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