Let's bet: Soliciting your Election Day predictions

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Let's bet: Soliciting your Election Day predictions

POSTED: Friday, October 29, 2010, 8:13 PM
Filed Under: Nation | News

Because, why the hell not.

Of course, we're not really going to bet, because that would be illegal. But, I am going to give you my predictions as to Tuesday's elections, and in the comments, you tell me how wrong I am and what's really gonna happen, and then on Wednesday, we'll compare notes. Cool?

To help you out, here are a few good polling and analysis sites, so we're all cribbing off the same cheat sheets:


FiveThirtyEight

Cook Political Report

Pollster.com (now owned by Huffington Post)

Real Clear Politics


All right, let's do this (and bear in mind, this is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen):

House of Representatives: 239-196, Republicans control. This would mean a pickup of of 59 seats, a massive GOP win; more so than most of the pollsters forecast. Locally, all of the Republicans in tight races — Gerlach, Meehan, Fitzpatrick — pull it out; Meehan, Gerlach and Fitzgerald with 4-to-6 point wins (think 52/53-48/47). Over in the Jerz, I gotta go with Adler over Runyan, but barely. John Boehner will be the speaker of the House, and by the time the next presidential election rolls around, he'll be a little less popular than Gingrinch was in 1999.

U.S. Senate: 52-48, Democrats control. This would mean a net pickup of 7 Republican seats: Arkansas, North Dakota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, and, yes, Pennsylvania. Much as I loath to say it, I have to go with Toomey, and probably larger than the polling indicates: 55-45. Joe Manchin will hold on, albeit barely, in West Virginia; and Chris Coons will embarrass Christine O'Donnell, 58-42. Cali, Washington, Oregon and Connecticut will remain blue, and Chuck Schumer of New York will be your next majority leader.

Oh, and Corbett will be our next gov. 58-42.

The comments are all yours. Fire away.


Tweets that mention Let's bet: Soliciting your Election Day predictions. :: The Clog :: Blog Archive :: Staff Blog :: Philadelphia City Paper -- Topsy.com
Posted 2010-10-30 01:11:08
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by blogs of the world, Philly News Now. Philly News Now said: Let's bet: Soliciting your Election Day predictions.: Because, why the hell not. Of course, we're not really goin... http://bit.ly/9s5rIK [...] 

Steve S.
Posted 2010-10-30 17:06:50
Your fright Toomey cover from a few days ago was PATHETIC.  Unprofessional.
Posted by Jeffrey Billman @ 8:13 PM  Permalink | Post a comment
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Here at The Naked City, you'll find breaking news, analysis, gossip and surprises about everything from crime and politics to the beating pulse of city life itself. We're good listeners, too:

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