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MUST READ: Enjoy the cool air while you can
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MUST READ: Enjoy the cool air while you can
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This weekend's Must Read comes from climateprogress.org, which in turn references top NASA climatologist James Hansen. And while I'm totally aware that climate change is a socialist myth propagated by leftist academics engaged in a conspiracy to bring you increasingly under the government's thumb (do I have that right?) — at least according to studies funded by fossil fuel companies who really have nothing but your best interests in mind, honest — let's see what Hansen has to say, anyway, just for fun (you can download the entire pdf of his paper here):
Finally, a comment on frequently asked questions of the sort: Was global warming the cause of the 2010 heat wave in Moscow, the 2003 heat wave in Europe, the all-time record high temperatures reached in many Asian nations in 2010, the incredible Pakistan flood in 2010? The standard scientist answer is âyou cannot blame a specific weather/climate event on global warming.â That answer, to the public, translates as ânoâ.
However, if the question were posed as âwould these events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 ppm?â, an appropriate answer in that case is âalmost certainly not.â That answer, to the public, translates as âyesâ, i.e., humans probably bear a responsibility for the extreme event.
In either case, the scientist usually goes on to say something about probabilities and how those are changing because of global warming. But the extended discussion, to much of the public, is chatter. The initial answer is all important.
Although either answer can be defended as âcorrectâ, we suggest that leading with the standard caveat âyou cannot blameâ¦â is misleading and allows a misinterpretation about the danger of increasing extreme events. Extreme events, by definition, are on the tail of the probability distribution. Events in the tail of the distribution are the ones that change most in frequency of occurrence as the distribution shifts due to global warming.
For example, the âhundred year floodâ was once something that you had better be aware of, but it was not very likely soon and you could get reasonably priced insurance. But the probability distribution function does not need to shift very far for the 100-year event to be occurring several times a century, along with a good chance of at least one 500-year event.
â¦
Given the dominant effect of El Nino-La Nina on short-term temperature change and the usual lag of a few months between the Nino index and its effect on global temperature, it is unlikely that 2011 will reach a new global record temperature.
In contrast, it is likely that 2012 will reach a record high global temperature. The principal caveat is that the duration of the current La Nina could stretch an extra year, as some prior La Ninas have. Given the association of extreme weather and climate events with rising global temperature, the expectation of new record high temperatures in 2012 also suggests that the frequency and magnitude of extreme events could reach a high level in 2012. Extreme events include not only high temperatures, but also indirect effects of a warming atmosphere including the impact of higher temperature on extreme rainfall and droughts. The greater water vapor content of a warmer atmosphere allows larger rainfall anomalies and provides the fuel for stronger storms driven by latent heat.
(Bold mine.)
Now, of course, Sean Hannity is the true expert on these things, not the NASA guy, and he knows James Hansen is full of shit, because it snowed last winter. At least, the entire GOP thinks so. And this is why we'll never get a sane climate policy.
It's nice outside today. Enjoy it, while you still can.
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