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MUST READ: You won't go broke underestimating the sophistication of the American voter
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MUST READ: You won't go broke underestimating the sophistication of the American voter
Today's must read comes from The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
A substantial and growing number of Americans say that Barack Obama is a Muslim, while the proportion saying he is a Christian has declined. More than a year and a half into his presidency, a plurality of the public says they do not know what religion Obama follows. A new national survey by the Pew Research Center finds that nearly one-in-five Americans (18%) now say Obama is a Muslim, up from 11% in March 2009. Only about one-third of adults (34%) say Obama is a Christian, down sharply from 48% in 2009. Fully 43% say they do not know what Obama's religion is.
It's not exactly groundbreaking to suggest that the average American voter isn't, well, all that attuned to politics. Noted political scientists — Philip Converse, UPenn's Michael X. Delli Carpini, Scott Keeter (who now apparently works for Pew, Richard R. Lau, David P. Redlawsk, Scott L. Althaus, Edward G. Carmines and James Stimson, to name just a few — have tackled the issues of how much voters know, and to what degree their opinions are manipulated by "elites", a term that in this usage refers to politicians and drivers of public opinion, who tend to be considerably more plugged in.
(Here, I linked to some of the pieces when I found them online for free.)
Converse's seminal 1964 piece, "The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics," paints a pretty bleak picture for informed democracy. Converse breaks the public down into five fields of interest, and posits that the more engaged one is, the more logically consistent one's beliefs are. The lower on his scale you go, the more manipulatable you are. Unfortunately, Converse argues, most people fall toward the bottom. Based on 1950s survey data, the top-two groups only made up about 10 percent of the population. Those with absolutely no idea about anything make up nearly a quarter of the population.Of course, his research is now 46 years old, and maybe the Information Age has changed that (I haven't been reading the polisci journals like I did in grad school, but nothing I've seen suggests a massive change).
The question then becomes, what difference does it make? Lau and Redlawsk say not a lot: no matter how much info they have, voters will vote their interest 70 percent of the time. Althaus, in a controversial piece, argues that the more informed a voter is, the more likely he or she is to be progressive on social issues.
With that as background, let's get back to the Pew poll: The toplines are getting the attention — many people, especially Republicans, think (erroneously, of course) that Barack Obama is a Muslim. Here's the more interesting part, to me:
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| Pew |
Clearly, belief that Obama is a Muslim correlates with a disapproval of his policies. There are two ways to read that: One, is Ben Smith's view:"I'd speculate, telling a pollster that Obama is a Muslim is just another way of expressing disapproval." People who don't like Obama say he's Muslim, but their opinion of him wouldn't change if they got the answer right. The other is that more informed and engaged voters are more likely to approve of Obama's policies. If I had to guess, and it would only be a guess, I'd think it a combination of both.
All the same, you won't go broke underestimating the sophistication of the American voter.
Obama has stated that he is a Christian...but all of his comments and actions leave people wondering if he secretly prays to Allah... http://www.actforamerica.org/
Remember, it wasn't not too long ago when there were news reports that Obama had beaten GW Bush in usage of the word "Jesus". Maybe he'll now need to say it more often than Joel Osteen on a regular basis? http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23510.html
My name Habib Halal Al-Sharif. I support mosque by ground zero. Next we build mosque in all american state capitals and DC, next to statehouses and white house OK? America muslim country soon! Muslims support muslim president!
[...] MUST READ: You won’t go broke underestimating the sophistication of the American voter :: The ... [...]
I am Sharif Mustaffa Al-Halal. I want mosque too. I want America to be muslim country with sharia law..."In Allah We Trust" should be on American money, and "One Nation, Under Allah" should be in Pledge of Allegiance. Women should be covered up, not drive cars, and not be allowed to speak unless allowed to speak by husband.
I am muslim. I support mosque and sharia. Women should not drive car and only speak when allowed by husband!
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