NLCS Game One: Why Everyone Is Right About Everything

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NLCS Game One: Why Everyone Is Right About Everything

POSTED: Sunday, October 17, 2010, 12:31 AM

Halladay/Lincecum

Coming into game one of the Phillies' annual appearance in the National League Championship Series, conventional wisdom seems to agree on two things

  1. We're destined for an epic, life-changing, game-one pitchers' duel, and
  2. The Phillies are winning this. Easily.

And while the contrarian in me wants to argue, nit-pick, and predict a second-inning Halladay/Lincecum collision that takes out both pitchers … I kinda agree with both.

To the first point, the rarity of this matchup really can't be overstated. In Halladay and Lincecum we have the two best pitchers in the National League, the last two Cy Young winners (Everyone cool with assuming Roy takes home the hardware this year? Yes? Yes. Good) and the owners of two of the best pitches in the majors – per fangraphs and common sense, Doc has the best cutter, The Freak the best change. Better, coming off last week's everything-you-can-I-can-do-better pissing contest, they're both red hot. Out of the eight pitches they throw, only one – Linc's curve – isn't plus or plus-plus. Tonight's game is, on paper, without hyperbole, the best postseason pitching matchup you've ever seen. So yeah, the hype is legit.

Unfortunately for the Giants, the second part of that conventional wisdom appears correct as well: this one shouldn't be close. The Phils pitch, hit, run and defend better. Their manager is bigger in Japan, their fans are drunkee, and they have an extra game at home, where their advantage is greater. Madison Bumgarner might trump Joe Blanton, but with Kung Fu Panda held out of the Giants lineup for sucking, a coherent argument can be made that the Phillies have an advantage at every position, and each of the top three starters. The pitching matchup makes the series a must-watch, but the drama does not.

Of course, as Mo Udall once mused, “If you can find something everyone agrees on, it's wrong.” Game on.

Notes from the pregame:

  • The Phils lefties - Ryan Howard & Ibanez – spent a lot of their batting practice working the opposite field. Look for them to be intentionally late tonight.
  • They put me outside in the aux box, where I have to weight down my notes with my computer cord, notebook, and voice recorder. It may have died down a bit by gametime, but rest assured, tonight's wind is going to be a factor tonight.
  • Despite not making the NLCS roster Greg Dobbs was out early taking grounder after grounder at 3B. Doubt it'll matter, but thought you should know.
  • Here is a fun fact: Ken Rosenthal is about 4'2”. He was interviewing Werth pregame and barely came up to the future-former-Phils' shoulder.
  • I'm sure our local plethora of Phillies blogs have covered this one nearly to death … but Brian Wilson's beard really is tremendous.
  • Forget about Lincecum being a product of Candlestick (I call Pac-Bell Park “Candlestick”, now and forever), he actually has slightly better splits on the road.

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