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NLDS Game 2 preview: Must win?
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NLDS Game 2 preview: Must win?
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The last time you saw your 2010 Philadelphia Phillies, they were jumping together in a heap in the middle of Citizen's Bank Park, exuberantly tackling their star pitcher, smiling Christmas-morning grins. They'd just been part of the greatest postseason pitching performance in National League history (a claim that stood for all of 28 hours ⦠thanks, Tim Lincecum) and having notched the first of what everyone seems to believe will 11 wins this postseason; the home team was happier than A.J. Daulerio with a Croc pic. Maybe everyone was just excited for their sweet new watches, but it was still genuinely captivating to see a team this star-studded so obviously thrilled. For them, Game 1 of the NLDS was the high point of the season.
Conversely, the last time you saw the Reds they were sadly walking back to their clubhouse, their heads uniformly pointed towards their cleats. They spent an entire game waving uselessly at every pitch in Halladay's arsenal, unable to even manage one well-struck ball. Watching them try to hit against Doc was like watching Adrian Greenier act opposite anyone: They had just been JV'd by the Phils' Varsity, and they all knew it. After a season in which their young stars had come into their own, they had been manhandled by the yardstick they had to hold themselves up to. For the Reds, Game 1 was the low point of their season.
That means, of course, that for the Phils there is no place to go but down, and for the Reds nowhere to go but up. That isn't a particularly insightful observation â the entire world knows it. Coming into the series the Reds were a prohibitive underdog in the series â every single ESPN analyst picked them to lose, and both SI and the Sporting News predicted a Phillies sweep â and now, would-be experts everywhere have all but written them off completely: âIt's hard to see how anyone can be optimistic about the Reds' chances,â opined Cliff Corcoran. Right now, you have to lay $600 just to have the privilege of winning $100 on a Phillies' series win.
And, on paper, everyone is right: Game two shouldn't be close. The Phillies are starting Roy Oswalt, best known for sub-2 ERA since joining the Phils, his five Top-5 finishes in the Cy Young race, and his NLCS MVP, against the Reds' Bronson Arroyo, best known for his hair"styles," his cover band, and his failed drug test. That isn't the only mismatch: The Phils finished 24 games over .500 at home, compared to the Reds' 3 over record on the road, and much of the young Cincinnati lineup has never had to do it when it matters. This disparity obviously played out Monday, when likely league MVP Joey Votto and his teammates combined for a total of no hits against Doc.
However, the real world doesn't exist in popular opinion, games are still won and lost outside of a spreadsheet, and short five-game series can lend themselves to flukes. Tonight, the Reds, a team who will have bettered their previous performance the first time a seeing-eye single squirts through the infield, face a team that just celebrated — literally had champagne brought into the clubhouse (not that Halladay had any that night ⦠he probably had stairs to run or something). The Reds have nothing to lose.
If the Phils win, so what? They were supposed to win. Not only are they prohibitive favorites, but if we are to believe the old adage, a series doesn't start until the road team wins a game, they'll have simply held serve. If the Reds win? Well, then the unbeatable Phillies just lost home field advantage, the egg-on-their-face Reds can play loose, and those Midwesterners out in whatever Podunk little state Cincinnati is in can put on their best Phillies-fan imitation and actually make an away game something to fret about.
So look, I'm not saying that if the Phillies drop game two suddenly they can't win — they can, and probably will — I'm just saying that if the Home Team wants to keep that unbeatable aura about them and stay out of a dogfight, well, early tonight is probably the time to do it.
Headed down to CBP now. Twitter during the game, game notes after â¦
[...] ReportDrama on tap as NL takes center stage on Day 3 MLB.comGame of the Night Toronto Sports MediaPhiladelphia Citypaper (blog) -BetUs.com -betEDall 18 news articles » Oct 04, 2010 [...]
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