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PA pollster: A draw in presidential election would be "disaster"
Franklin & Marshall's G. Terry Madonna says the election hinges on seven to nine states; Pennsylvania is not on the list.
PA pollster: A draw in presidential election would be "disaster"
Despite more than four decades covering politics, a Franklin & Marshall professor admitted Wednesday that interpreting this year's battle for the White House is no simple task.
"As we sit here today and try to figure out what's going to happen in less than two weeks, this is an election unlike any election I've seen in 40 years of teaching political history," said G. Terry Madonna, director of Franklin & Marshall's Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
Madonna, who spoke Wednesday afternoon at the Marriott in West Conshohocken, said if the contest was held today, President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney would tie nationally at 47 percent, with the remaining voters up for grabs.
But those numbers, the founder of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll said, aren't a clear indicator of the results to come. "Presidential elections are not about the popular vote […] they're about electoral votes," Madonna said. "There's only one number that matters in the presidential election, and that's the number 270."
The election, he predicted, will hinge on seven to nine swing states, including Ohio, Florida and Virginia. By Nov. 7, both campaigns will have devoted 90 percent of their resources to those states, he said.
As of Wednesday, he said, Pennsylvania doesn't belong on that list.
"The big question for our state is 'Will we matter?,' even though we have a tightening election here," Madonna said, alluding to the lack of television advertisements deployed in the Keystone State thus far. "Here's how to know when our state matters: show me the money."
As of Wednesday, Obama holds a 4.8 percent advantage in Pennsylvania, according to five polls taken between Oct. 9 and Oct. 21 and aggregated by Real Clear Politics. Nationally, in polls conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 23, Real Clear Politics reports a 0.6 percent Romney lead.
Madonna praised Obama's campaign, but said a struggling economy could bounce the president from office. "If Obama wins the election, it's in spite of the economy and because of a good campaign," he said. "If Romney wins, it's because of the economy and in spite of a bad campaign."
Andy Ostrowski, representing the Harrisburg-based PA Civil Rights Law Network, attended Wednesday's speech. A self-described "Lancaster County Republican," Ostrowski said he's grown disenchanted with the Romney campaign. "It's completely dishonest. When you have a debate you're supposed to debate the merits of the issues so people can come to a decision," he said. "All [Romney] did, particularly in the foreign policy debate, was shift and start saying everything Obama did. We had no real valid and legitimate debate over the issues."
According to Madonna, the Obama campaign was able to define Romney to voters before the governor could do so himself. "The problem that Romney has is that there was just enough narrative in his background to fit the caricature the Obama campaign has presente: a very rich guy who wouldn't release his income taxes."
But Romney scored a decisive victory in the first presidential debate, according to Madonna, a victory he said managed to change perceptions of the governor. "If in fact Romney wins this election, and it's a big if, he wins it because on that debate he became an acceptable alternative," he said. "He showed that he wasn't this distant, aloof rich guy that didn't care about people."
One thing is clear, Madonna said: A decisive outcome is essential for the country. "We could end up very late at night or early in the morning on Nov. 7 and we still may not know," Madonna said. "I hope there is some reasonable consensus, because I don't think the nation can stand months and months of legal wrangling over the next President of the United States. I think that would be a complete disaster."
What does it say about our current President that he's spent the entire campaign trying to mis-portray Mitt Romney, and all those hundreds of miilions of dollars he spent of false and negative ads were overcome the instant Americans saw the two of them standing next to each other speaking at the first debate?
Now, two weeks before the election, Obama puts out a glossy pamphlet of meaningless platitudes, and calls it his "Plan"?
Obama has run a terrible campaign, not just from a strategic perspective, but because of the damage he has done to Americans' trust in political discourse, as well as the annihilation of any expectation of accountability in our elected leaders.
Obama acts like he hasn't been the President over the last 4 years.
Man up and take responsibility.
Or, forget it, just go away. You had your shot and you did a crappy job. Hit the road.— Mr. Smith- Romney's victory in the first debate had nothing to do with the virtues of his failed ideology.
Obama was an arrogant and absent-minded professor. Romney was a persuasive and dishonest con-man.
The Rebublican media-stars accusing Obama of damaging
political discourse are so hypocritical it's laughable.
Year after year they spread B.S. and then act offended if some gets on them.
The Republicans couldn't defeat Obama ideologically so they attacked his family background.
They couldn't defeat Clinton's policies so they attacked his sex life.
They couldn't defeat Gore electorially so they attacked the voting process.— PHILEXILE - It's not a "mis-portrayal" to say Romney is a shape shifting lier that Americans can't trust. That's a fact. Get your big plate of crow ready for when the president is reelected. — Kilgore Trout 76
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